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Tuesday, January 28, 2003
Good News for Rope Traders This link shows what is truly the worst case scenario in our upcoming war with Iraq. I don't think that it will go down like this, but at the same time, it's not totally outside the realm of possibility. My prediction is that the Iraqis will see nearly a week of bombing before they see any American troops. There will be some fighting on the outskirts of urban areas as our forces move in. The closer we get to the cities, the more we will start seeing support from the Iraqi people. They won't know what to do or how to help or where exactly Saddam is hiding, but they'll be mighty glad to see us and our chocolate bars. There will be ongoing operations for three or four weeks punctuated by some fierce and occassionally effective surprise attacks on our men. More Iraqi civilians will die than allied forces, but like Afghanistan, the numbers will be small enough that nearly every individual case will be reported. Constant stories of dead civilians by Reuters et al will make the casualties appear far worse than would have been expected even 10 years ago. We'll have a force in the region for years, but for the most part the operation will be complete in 8-10 weeks. I guess the only question left is when things will start. I suspect we'll have a better idea about the timing after tonight's State of the Union address. |
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